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UAE raises climate ambition

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Tighter emissions target for 2030:

Tighter target: The UAE cabinet recently approved an update of its second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), which was released in December 2020. The country has raised its greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions reduction target from 23.5% to 31%, compared with a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario for the year 2030. The new target translates into avoidance of 93.2 million tons of CO2 equivalent, with a key focus on electricity, transport, and the industrial sector, which together account for more than 90% of the overall emission reduction goal set by the country.

Regional and global context: In comparison, Saudi Arabia, the largest economy in the region, has set a GHG emissions reduction target of 278 million tons of CO2 equivalent annually by 2030, with 2019 designated as a base year. Other GCC member states have also set their own near-term targets defined against business-as-usual projections. Large countries outside the GCC, however, have set more ambitious near-term (2030) emissions reduction targets, which are based on base-year emissions, varying from 50% for the US (base year 2005), 68% for the UK and 55% for the EU (both vs 1990).

Setting a regional example: The UAE became the first country in the GCC region to set a net-zero target when it announced its Net Zero 2050 Strategic Initiative last October. It is also now the first country in the region to revise its near-term nationwide climate ambition before the 27th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 27) to the UNFCCC, which will take place in Egypt, November 2022. It is worth highlighting that strengthening NDC ambitions before the COP27 is one of the key action points from the Glasgow Climate Pact last year. Given that the UAE is the host for the COP28 in November 2023, we think that the country's NDC update could set the ball rolling for other countries in the region to also revise their national climate targets.

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