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The case for carbon pricing is getting stronger

The case for carbon pricing is getting stronger

The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) aims to achieve net zero by 2050, a target that requires ships powered with alternative fuel to come into operation on a meaningful scale before the end of this decade. Yet, low emission fuels are 2-4x costlier than conventional fuels. While carbon pricing could help narrow this gap and accelerate the transition, challenges remain.

We have recently published a report where we provide an overview of the potential mechanisms for introducing a global carbon price for global shipping as well as the challenges involved. We also discuss the cost implications, the impact on sub-sectors, technological pathways to decarbonisation for new and existing fleets, and competitive dynamics.

In July 2023, the IMO’s Marine Environment Protection Committee set the base for a potential market-based measure for emissions pricing. It outlined interim targets of 5-10% zero or near zero emission fuels in the energy mix by 2030 and a timeline to adopt emissions pricing by 2025 and be implemented by 2027. The EU’s inclusion of shipping in its emissions trading system has increased the pressure to adopt a global approach.

USD152bn
Shipping industry fuel bill increase based on an estimated price of USD150/t of CO2
91%
Year-over-year fuel price increase for the industry based on USD150/t of CO2e

The current proposals imply carbon prices ranging between USD6.25 and USD300 per tonne (t) of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) vs the current EU carbon allowance price of cUSD71/t. We estimate that at a price of USD150/t of CO2e the industry fuel bill could rise by USD152bn – 91% higher than the 2023 level and equivalent to between 9% and 19% of annual revenue for the shipping companies we cover. If implemented universally, these costs are likely to be passed on to customers.

While the container shipping is the most exposed sub-sector it also the most proactive. In general, container ships have relatively higher emissions than other sub-sectors. With scheduled services enabling easy bunkering, container lines are better suited to the green transition. Indeed, alternative-fuel-capable ships comprise nearly two thirds of the container shipping orderbook by gross tonnage vs just 10% for dry bulk and 19% for tankers.

In our view, carbon pricing needs to be set sufficiently high to make alternative fuels competitive and drive a shift away from fossil fuels. But the pricing mechanisms need careful design, with a clear focus on subsidising cleaner fuels and funding research and development, backed by a basket of other policy measures, such as establishing a fuel standard and requiring ships to burn clean fuels within a defined timeline.

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